Veepwatch: Playing to Win vs. Playing Not to Lose

So Obama is probably going to announce his Vice Presidential choice tomorrow morning. Right now, the conventional wisdom sees a two-man race between Senators Evan Bayh (IN) and Joe Biden (DE). Of course, this is a Very closely guarded secret, and it's entirely possible that the Bayh-Biden choice is pure media speculation.

But if it really is Biden or Bayh, it looks like a classic case of the old sports cliche, Playing to Win vs. Playing Not to Lose.

Right now the Obama campaign looks a little too plastic, a little too gentle. The VP choice Obama faces is not a matter of 'youth vs. experience' or what swing state he wants to put on the ticket. It's whether he wants to add some prickliness to his campaign, or if he's gonna reinforce that timid, plasticky image.

Evan Bayh: Playing Not to Lose

Bayh is the most-vanilla possible choice. On the surface he's a good guy, and you can check off a lot of good boxes with Bayh: young And experienced, respected in a flippable red state, a clinton supporter (unity!), not likely to make any gaffes.

Bayh's downside, though, cuts at the very heart of Obama's appeal to the left. For people like me, the most crucial difference between Clinton and Obama was that Obama seemed genuinely interested, and unashamed, of bringing progressivism back to the mainstream Democratic party. Bayh, early supporter of Iraq, former chairman of the DLC (saving the democratic party by pretending we're republicans), does not represent the new direction I'm hoping for.

So yeah, Bayh is a good, generic guy. But that's really all we're looking at. Utterly inoffensive blandness, at no cost and no benefit to Obama, except for dissapointing some progressives.

Joe Biden: Playing to Win

Biden looks like the higher risk, higher reward pick. He's an old guy, and kindof a dick. He's got his share of downsides- a little gaffe-prone, maybe affiliated with the 'Washington establishment' too much.

But what Biden brings to the table, and what Obama's really lost this month: Biden is cocky. He's aggressive. He's not gonna be sweet and timid and ashamed to stand up against GOP bullying. And he really seems to savor the fight, he Enjoys being the type of salty surrogate this campaign needs. He might say something a little stupid in the next few months, but he's also likely to land some killer rhetorical blows against McCain.

So ultimately it looks like Obama's choice comes down to, what sort of surrogate does he want: a bland and painless, generic pol; or a fellow who's gonna give you one or two embarassments, and three months of crackling, quotable hardball.


There are two great flaws with the Democratic Party of the past eight years: the concept that in order to win, we need to sacrifice liberalism and act like conservatives; and the complete and utter lack-of-balls when it comes to resisting the GOP attack machine.

I've always believed that Obama is the guy who will correct those two flaws. Biden helps Obama correct the latter… but Bayh just makes the former flaw worse.


I'm expecting Obama to go with Bayh, at this stage… or hopefully a good smart dark horse. But if it really does come down to Biden-Bayh, Obama ought to pick the guy who is ready to fight on day one.