7 Obama Advantages

The experts aren't quite sure what to make of the polling insanity caused by all the weirdness of the past two weeks, what with the popular incompetent secessionist pit bulls, the pansy hurricanes, and the first good speech by John Kerry since the Vietnam era. But whatever the result, I think it's worth taking a look at a few factors that should work in Obama's favor (many of which I am summarizing from 538). None of these is likely to be game-changing, but together they could help out in a close race.

1. Cell-phone users are underrepresented in the polls. Since pollsters get their information from phone calls, and they don't really have a way to call cell phones, people who don't have land lines are left out of the polls. These people tend to be younger, which means they're more likely to vote Obama.
   
2. Young voters may be underrepresented in the polls. Some pollsters try to weight responses by historical voter turn-outs. Since old people go around voting on everything, and young people are busy setting themselves on fire with their iPods, the youths typically get weighted pretty poorly. But Obama is not only the best candidate in several decades, he's also the coolest, so a larger-than-expected youth vote could give him a little extra boost.
3. The Presidential debates are still coming. Obama has way better stage presence than McCain. He's more charming, he's better looking, he appears healthy instead of in rigor mortis, and he's a far better speaker. And that stuff pales in comparison to the superiority of his grasp on policy. While McCain rambles on about nonexistent borders in a country he wants to occupy for 100 years, Obama knows what the fuck he's talking about. (Here's a good example). Anything could happen, but the best case scenario for the Republicans is basically staying afloat, whereas the Dems have potential for a crushing victory.
4. The VP debates are still coming. You never know when Biden will do something stupid, like calling Palin a dumb broad or something, but this guy owned Rudy Giuliani, one of the creepiest people in America. Palin is an inexperienced wad of corruption whose only substantive national appearance so far involved reading a speech written before she was even chosen. Anything could happen, and Republican damage control (widespread lying) is formidable, but I wouldn't be surprised if she looks like the incompetent local politician she is.
   
5. Enthusiasm gap. The Palin pick may degrade this a little, assuming none of her many, many scandals errupts into a big deal, but generally Dems are way more enthusiastic than GORBs this year. Anecdotal evidence from some folks I know suggests that quite a few conservatives are just too discouraged to vote.
6. Ground Game Gap. Obama has way more people on the ground than McCain. This kind of thing can make a bigger difference as the election draws nearer, since it enables you to focus your resources more efficiently.
7. Death. While new eighteenth birthdays swell Obama's ranks every day, McCain supporters are quietly dying in their sleep, mercifully avoiding the irony of voting for policies that would ruin their fading lives.

Even if the polling comes out tied or with a slight McCain advantage (and by the time the convention bounces wear off, it may show a slight Obama lead anyway), I think the good guys still have reason to be optimistic.