the plain facts of the electoral map

The classic minimalist Obama victory plan: Kerry states + Iowa and New Mexico + Colorado.
The classic minimalist McCain victory plan: Bush states - Iowa and New Mexico, keeping Colorado.

That's the minimum success map for each guy. But then you also have the Offense options, the pickoff opportunities, where each guy is trying to expand the map.

Obama plays offense: Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Nevada, and (the more-secure, longer-shots) Florida, Missouri, Indiana.

McCain plays offense: Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire.

Right now, McCain's pickoff opportunities have vanished completely. PA and MI are, by enormous margins, essentially in the tank for Obama. NH still might vary, although it's looking good for Obama now, but it's not a singular game-changer in the electoral vote count.

And on the other hand, Obama's map is Exploding- everywhere he wanted to challenge McCain, Obama is winning. Everywhere.

And the takeaway point is, Obama's lead is not only huge- it is also phenomenally superfluous.

The states where Obama earns a 95% or better chance of victory- the bluest, solidest Democratic states- currently add up to 260 electoral votes. He can seriously just win One, any one of the random swing states on the map, and he'll be the next President.

We could be in a position on election night, where Indiana- with its 11 electoral votes and early poll closing- might report an Obama win around 8 or 9 pm. And it'll be over before it even begins. Bust out the drinks and party the rest of the night.