Obama looks good. Complacency is probably the biggest threat to a Democratic victory. Key blocs in the Obama coalition- minorities and young'ns- have failed to show up to vote in big numbers before. But that's probably no more or less dangerous than the equal and opposite reaction- lots of republican voters, discouraged by an inevitable loss, might not go to the polls either.
The movement that has surprised me most is Virginia's hardening into a strong Obama state. Obviously there's no guarantee that this holds up, but it definitely looks very good. Virginia in and of itself could settle this election; all the firmest Kerry states, plus Virginia, is enough to move Obama past 270. In the last day or two McCain has started to zero in on Pennsylvania as a pickup opportunity, but so far the polls aren't receptive. If PA and VA both report for Obama early on Election Night, that's game-set-match.
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