fivethirtyeight's changed their methodology since last week, so Obama looks a little less dominant; on the other hand, since he's still winning strong even with a more conservative, realistic estimate, that's pretty good news.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
T-minus Eighteen weeks
fivethirtyeight's changed their methodology since last week, so Obama looks a little less dominant; on the other hand, since he's still winning strong even with a more conservative, realistic estimate, that's pretty good news.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Wesley Clark: Awesome
This weekend, retired General Wesley Clark said of John McCain's military record, "Well, I don't think riding in a fighter plane and getting shot down is a qualification to be president." McCain, as it his wont, responded with fury and confusion.
Clark was right, of course, and here is a comparison of his military record against John McCain's:
Getting into college:
Clark is a fucking badass. Obama probably made the right call in terms of getting swing votes when he distanced himself from Clark. But from a standpoint of being correct, this was an attack on McCain's lack of military leadership from possibly the most qualified military leader on earth. McCain crashed that plane in part because he spent his time getting demerits and failing classes instead of paying attention to the guys who tell you how to keep your plane from crashing. He wound up a P.O.W. partially because he had no respect for his own military leadership, and I'm willing to to listen to one of the greatest living generals when he says he has no respect for McCain's.
Clark was right, of course, and here is a comparison of his military record against John McCain's:
Getting into college:
- Clark- a National Merit Scholar and state champion swimmer, he was a natural fit for West Point.
- McCain- the son (and grandson!) of someone who was qualified to go to Annapolis, he was a terrible fit for Annapolis
- Clark- valedictorian
- McCain- 884th out of 889
- Clark-Rhodes Scholar
- McCain-crashed a lot of planes
- Clark- Won a Bronze Star as a staff officer, won a Silver Star for directing a successful counterattack after being shot four times with an AK-47
- McCain- Crashed another plane, was captured, lasted five years as a P.O.W., won Silver Star, Legion of Merit, Distinguished Flying Cross, Bronze Star, Navy Commendation Medal, 12 other medals
- Clark- Served as an instructor at West Point, some political work, commanded division, battalion and brigade in Germany, won the Meritorious Service Medal, won a Legion of Merit, won another Legion of Merit, won another Meritorious Service Medal, won another Legion of Merit, held key training post in Gulf War, won another Legion of Merit, won Distinguished Service Medal, important general in Bosnia, withstood sniper fire and rappelled down a mountain to retrieve American bodies, became Supreme Allied Commander of Europe, won Kosovo war without sacrificing a single soldier, retired as four-star general, won various other medals, opposed Iraq War from the start
- McCain-ran a squad that won a Meritorious Unit Commendation, served as Navy's liaison to the Senate, retired as a captain, divorced his disabled wife and married a beer heiress, was in the "Keating Five", fought wasteful spending, still a fan of the Iraq War
Clark is a fucking badass. Obama probably made the right call in terms of getting swing votes when he distanced himself from Clark. But from a standpoint of being correct, this was an attack on McCain's lack of military leadership from possibly the most qualified military leader on earth. McCain crashed that plane in part because he spent his time getting demerits and failing classes instead of paying attention to the guys who tell you how to keep your plane from crashing. He wound up a P.O.W. partially because he had no respect for his own military leadership, and I'm willing to to listen to one of the greatest living generals when he says he has no respect for McCain's.
Friday, June 27, 2008
think green . . . or die . . . somehow
I suppose I do have one, unembarassed passion. I want to know what it feels like to care about something passionately.
-Susan Orlean in "Adaptation"
I'm typically not very dedicated when it comes to being a dissatisfied customer. I see people in restaurants getting furious about something frivolous, like they ordered broccoli but instead got fish, and I can only dream. So when I walked out of a movie before even watching an hour of it for the first time ever, it felt like a rite of passage.
Shyamalan's The Happening, which depicts people killing themselves under the influence of a mysterious neurotoxin, achieved a degree of cinematic disaster that is almost genius; a movie about people uncontrollably killing themselves which is so bad that it makes you want to do just that. It's like if Adaptation-with all its quirky self-reference and winking philosophical treatments of consciousness and reality- was actually never written and was instead a mind-numbingly horrible plot vomited onto a script that reads like it was written by someone who has no familiarity with the English language or any culture anywhere while they glance half drunk at a translation dictionary and hope that some distractingly misplaced hip language will bring some multidimensionality to characters that take time off from literally telling you their cliche personality traits in order to interact in such an awkwardly inhuman way that you hope they're the next one to try and kill themselves by offering their arm to a lion in the zoo and then stumbling around with a bloody stump that looks like something out of Kill Bill. (Oops, sorry, SPOILER ALERT! . . . That actually happens in the movie.)
I asked someone who was dumb enough to stay through the whole thing what it turned out to be that was making people kill themselves, and, just like ancillary character number three blatantly told the audience in one of Shammy's trademark attempts at adumbration through plot-holes, it was plants in major city parks that had decided to secrete deadly psychotropic death chemicals of doom for 24 hours in order to warn humans of the consequences of further disrespect for the environment. An organized mass-murder by plants. It's spooky cause it has a message which chills your nerves every time you release CO2 by driving you car: someday there will be an oak tree in your rear-view that has HAD ENOUGH.
I think it's a great idea. It obviously cost less to propogate a green-friendly message in this way than to offer $300 million for a better car battery, and if someone figured out how to make it into a movie that shouldn't have to apologize to all of humanity for its deleterious effects on our collective consciousness, I'd be all for it. Until then I'll just have to continue haphazardly killing every tree I see before it gives me the brain pollen and hoping that that gas tax kicks in soon. I suppose I should be thankful to Shammy for teaching me to care to the point of hatred, but really he just opened my eyes to the depression that comes from noticing that the only environmental policies dumber than the worst movie ever made are espoused by a man trying to run the country.
-Susan Orlean in "Adaptation"
I'm typically not very dedicated when it comes to being a dissatisfied customer. I see people in restaurants getting furious about something frivolous, like they ordered broccoli but instead got fish, and I can only dream. So when I walked out of a movie before even watching an hour of it for the first time ever, it felt like a rite of passage.
Shyamalan's The Happening, which depicts people killing themselves under the influence of a mysterious neurotoxin, achieved a degree of cinematic disaster that is almost genius; a movie about people uncontrollably killing themselves which is so bad that it makes you want to do just that. It's like if Adaptation-with all its quirky self-reference and winking philosophical treatments of consciousness and reality- was actually never written and was instead a mind-numbingly horrible plot vomited onto a script that reads like it was written by someone who has no familiarity with the English language or any culture anywhere while they glance half drunk at a translation dictionary and hope that some distractingly misplaced hip language will bring some multidimensionality to characters that take time off from literally telling you their cliche personality traits in order to interact in such an awkwardly inhuman way that you hope they're the next one to try and kill themselves by offering their arm to a lion in the zoo and then stumbling around with a bloody stump that looks like something out of Kill Bill. (Oops, sorry, SPOILER ALERT! . . . That actually happens in the movie.)
I asked someone who was dumb enough to stay through the whole thing what it turned out to be that was making people kill themselves, and, just like ancillary character number three blatantly told the audience in one of Shammy's trademark attempts at adumbration through plot-holes, it was plants in major city parks that had decided to secrete deadly psychotropic death chemicals of doom for 24 hours in order to warn humans of the consequences of further disrespect for the environment. An organized mass-murder by plants. It's spooky cause it has a message which chills your nerves every time you release CO2 by driving you car: someday there will be an oak tree in your rear-view that has HAD ENOUGH.
I think it's a great idea. It obviously cost less to propogate a green-friendly message in this way than to offer $300 million for a better car battery, and if someone figured out how to make it into a movie that shouldn't have to apologize to all of humanity for its deleterious effects on our collective consciousness, I'd be all for it. Until then I'll just have to continue haphazardly killing every tree I see before it gives me the brain pollen and hoping that that gas tax kicks in soon. I suppose I should be thankful to Shammy for teaching me to care to the point of hatred, but really he just opened my eyes to the depression that comes from noticing that the only environmental policies dumber than the worst movie ever made are espoused by a man trying to run the country.
THE 2008 NBA PRESIDENTIAL DRAFT. part two: picks 11-20
Second Part of a Four Part Series: The 2008 NBA Presidential Draft, if the entrants were the Presidents, judged by their athletic peaks and presidential character.
11
Indiana Pacers- George H.W. Bush
Bush is the best athlete left in the draft. He’s a smart, steady, unassailable guy for a team that’s really looking for character players.
12
Sacramento Kings- James Monroe
This team is pretty depressing, just bland and flat as hell. They could use a big personality with big talent, but there’s not much of that left on the board. Monroe at least gives them a very solid piece for the future. Long, strong, and smart.
13
Portland Trail Blazers- Dwight D. Eisenhower
The Trail Blazers are already in amazing shape with a roster of high-character, very talented guys. Eisenhower’s a natural fit, as he’s proven his talent for encouraging prosperity through solid, light-handed leadership.
14
Golden State Warriors- John Quincy Adams
The Warriors are an unconventional team and this is an unconventional pick. JQ’s small but also a very hard worker with a surprising history of athletic endurance. Plus he’s absolutely brilliant. He’ll do a fine job backing up Baron Davis at the point.
15
Phoenix Suns- Zachary Taylor
Zach is short but he’s got a muscular frame and he’s tough as nails. He’ll be a good undersized power forward. Ideally Phoenix would trade up for Grant, but Old Rough and Ready is the next-best option as that type of player.
16
Philadelphia 76ers- James Garfield
Garfield is simply the best prospect on the board. He’s athletic, strong, energetic and even ambidextrous. He’s a solid pick.
17
Toronto Raptors- Chester Alan Arthur
The best pick on the board. Good height (6’2”), gregarious demeanor, smart and steady. He’s ready to contribute right away.
18
Washington Wizards- Lyndon B. Johnson
The Wizards could use some scoring in the frontcourt, and that’s what LBJ might bring. He’s tall, fat and enormously charismatic- a proto-Shaq, with a better work ethic. Johnson’s not too athletic but, relative to other players in this draft, he’s got size. Definitely bust potential- but also star potential (if he doesn't clash with Gilbert Arenas).
19
Cleveland Cavaliers- James K. Polk
The Cavaliers already have leadership and scoring in Lebron James. What they’re really after is a veteran point guard. Polk is an intensely serious little guy, and Lebron would be hugely relieved to have a teammate as smart and focused as Polk.
20
Charlotte Bobcats- Jimmy Carter
Jimmy absolutely plummeted in this draft- I had him rated as one of the better athletic prospects, but he just didn’t fill the needs for a lot of earlier teams. With Charlotte’s second pick they get a steal and a likable Southerner. Plus, Jimmy’s a devout Christian, so there’s not much risk of him getting into the wrong headlines.
11
Indiana Pacers- George H.W. Bush
Bush is the best athlete left in the draft. He’s a smart, steady, unassailable guy for a team that’s really looking for character players.
12
Sacramento Kings- James Monroe
This team is pretty depressing, just bland and flat as hell. They could use a big personality with big talent, but there’s not much of that left on the board. Monroe at least gives them a very solid piece for the future. Long, strong, and smart.
13
Portland Trail Blazers- Dwight D. Eisenhower
The Trail Blazers are already in amazing shape with a roster of high-character, very talented guys. Eisenhower’s a natural fit, as he’s proven his talent for encouraging prosperity through solid, light-handed leadership.
14
Golden State Warriors- John Quincy Adams
The Warriors are an unconventional team and this is an unconventional pick. JQ’s small but also a very hard worker with a surprising history of athletic endurance. Plus he’s absolutely brilliant. He’ll do a fine job backing up Baron Davis at the point.
15
Phoenix Suns- Zachary Taylor
Zach is short but he’s got a muscular frame and he’s tough as nails. He’ll be a good undersized power forward. Ideally Phoenix would trade up for Grant, but Old Rough and Ready is the next-best option as that type of player.
16
Philadelphia 76ers- James Garfield
Garfield is simply the best prospect on the board. He’s athletic, strong, energetic and even ambidextrous. He’s a solid pick.
17
Toronto Raptors- Chester Alan Arthur
The best pick on the board. Good height (6’2”), gregarious demeanor, smart and steady. He’s ready to contribute right away.
18
Washington Wizards- Lyndon B. Johnson
The Wizards could use some scoring in the frontcourt, and that’s what LBJ might bring. He’s tall, fat and enormously charismatic- a proto-Shaq, with a better work ethic. Johnson’s not too athletic but, relative to other players in this draft, he’s got size. Definitely bust potential- but also star potential (if he doesn't clash with Gilbert Arenas).
19
Cleveland Cavaliers- James K. Polk
The Cavaliers already have leadership and scoring in Lebron James. What they’re really after is a veteran point guard. Polk is an intensely serious little guy, and Lebron would be hugely relieved to have a teammate as smart and focused as Polk.
20
Charlotte Bobcats- Jimmy Carter
Jimmy absolutely plummeted in this draft- I had him rated as one of the better athletic prospects, but he just didn’t fill the needs for a lot of earlier teams. With Charlotte’s second pick they get a steal and a likable Southerner. Plus, Jimmy’s a devout Christian, so there’s not much risk of him getting into the wrong headlines.
WAHOO!
Supreme Court lifts DC's Gun Ban.
Wahoo!!!
Finally, a Supreme Court that wants to make it easier for This to happen in the future:
(note: listen to the first video while watching the second video, for MAX EFFECT!)
Wahoo!!!
Finally, a Supreme Court that wants to make it easier for This to happen in the future:
(note: listen to the first video while watching the second video, for MAX EFFECT!)
Thursday, June 26, 2008
THE 2008 NBA PRESIDENTIAL DRAFT. part one: picks 1-10
The two subjects nearest to my heart, politics and basketball, can occasionally intertwine in pretty interesting ways. And in other cases, there’s gonna be some parallels that are massively shoehorned, just because I think it’s fun to look at the two together.
With that in mind, here is
the 2008 NBA Draft, if the entrants were each of our Presidents, evaluated by their character in office/peak athletic years.
PART ONE: THE FIRST TEN PICKS
1
Chicago Bulls- Abraham Lincoln
You gotta go with the hometown hero. Lincoln might not be the best athlete in the draft, but he brings serious character and leadership to a young team. We’re talking the Larry Bird of American NBA Presidents. Besides, the man has height- 6’4”- which makes him one of the few Presidents who could legitimately play at the NBA level.
2
Miami Heat- Teddy Roosevelt
Although Abe goes first, there’s definitely a Sam Bowie- Michael Jordan vibe in how this shakes out. Teddy is an absolute beast- in addition to serious athletic versatility, he’s also got the obsessive, internal drive to be a champion. TR, Wade and the Matrix give Miami an enviable core.
3
Minnesota Timberwolves- Gerald Ford
Ford is the best athlete in the draft– he was an all-star college athlete and could have played pro football if he wanted to. Additionally he’s a midwesterner with a low-key, workmanlike attitude- a great leader for a young T-Wolves team.
4
Los Angeles Clippers- Ronald Reagan
Reagan’s a Hollywood guy and he’s the perfect face for a franchise that could really use one. He’s a great athlete and a charismatic interview. Good fit for this team.
5
Memphis Grizzlies- Andrew Jackson
Jackson is a major wild card; he’s six feet tall and very thin, but he’s also fucking tough and insane. He’s the ultimate dice roll- if he can stay in the game and avoid technicals, he’s got game-changing potential as a defensive and psychological force on the court. Memphis badly needs to rebuild, and Jackson gives them the draft’s most charismatic enforcer.
6
New York Knicks- George Washington
This is the first really tough call. The Knicks would love to take Grant but they’ve already got Reynaldo Balkman playing a similar game. The Knicks are a badly fractured team and they need instant leadership, which comes from either hometown hero FDR or the Greatest American, Washington. Ultimately you gotta go with Washington because he’s the father of our country.
7
Seattle Supersonics- George W. Bush
Bush is a great athlete who exercises constantly. He can bench 5 reps of 185- more than Sonics star Kevin Durant. It also helps that the owner of the Sonics is a wealthy homophobe. Obviously there’s some dangerous bust potential here, some character issues. Bush is intensely sheltered, but he might be okay. After all, if the team moves to Oklahoma, he’ll play in front of a sympathetic crowd- the only type of crowd he can tolerate.
8
Milwaukee Bucks- John F. Kennedy
This is a reach. Kennedy the athlete really reminds me of Yi Jianlian the athlete. Although there’s the outward projection of vigor and talent, his actual physical state is pretty mysterious. Considering the Bucks badly need star power, and were willing to roll the dice on Yi for a year, it makes sense that they’d give a similar try with JFK.
9
Charlotte Bobcats- Franklin D. Roosevelt
This is a good steal. At his athletic peak, FDR was a pretty versatile athlete. At his intellectual peak, he’s a bold, creative leader who surrounds himself with great talent. This Bobcats team has the talent but lacks a real on-court leader, besides maybe Ray Felton. FDR could take their chemistry to the next level.
10
New Jersey Nets- Ulysses S. Grant
The Nets are a young, soft team that could badly use some interior toughness. Grant is generally kindof a dumb, narrow focused guy, but he’s a dogged, vicious player. After Jackson, he’s the most intense ‘enforcer’ option in this draft, and he could cause some real trouble in the paint.
COMING TOMORROW: picks 11-30 and the presidents who didn't make the cut
With that in mind, here is
the 2008 NBA Draft, if the entrants were each of our Presidents, evaluated by their character in office/peak athletic years.
PART ONE: THE FIRST TEN PICKS
1
Chicago Bulls- Abraham Lincoln
You gotta go with the hometown hero. Lincoln might not be the best athlete in the draft, but he brings serious character and leadership to a young team. We’re talking the Larry Bird of American NBA Presidents. Besides, the man has height- 6’4”- which makes him one of the few Presidents who could legitimately play at the NBA level.
2
Miami Heat- Teddy Roosevelt
Although Abe goes first, there’s definitely a Sam Bowie- Michael Jordan vibe in how this shakes out. Teddy is an absolute beast- in addition to serious athletic versatility, he’s also got the obsessive, internal drive to be a champion. TR, Wade and the Matrix give Miami an enviable core.
3
Minnesota Timberwolves- Gerald Ford
Ford is the best athlete in the draft– he was an all-star college athlete and could have played pro football if he wanted to. Additionally he’s a midwesterner with a low-key, workmanlike attitude- a great leader for a young T-Wolves team.
4
Los Angeles Clippers- Ronald Reagan
Reagan’s a Hollywood guy and he’s the perfect face for a franchise that could really use one. He’s a great athlete and a charismatic interview. Good fit for this team.
5
Memphis Grizzlies- Andrew Jackson
Jackson is a major wild card; he’s six feet tall and very thin, but he’s also fucking tough and insane. He’s the ultimate dice roll- if he can stay in the game and avoid technicals, he’s got game-changing potential as a defensive and psychological force on the court. Memphis badly needs to rebuild, and Jackson gives them the draft’s most charismatic enforcer.
6
New York Knicks- George Washington
This is the first really tough call. The Knicks would love to take Grant but they’ve already got Reynaldo Balkman playing a similar game. The Knicks are a badly fractured team and they need instant leadership, which comes from either hometown hero FDR or the Greatest American, Washington. Ultimately you gotta go with Washington because he’s the father of our country.
7
Seattle Supersonics- George W. Bush
Bush is a great athlete who exercises constantly. He can bench 5 reps of 185- more than Sonics star Kevin Durant. It also helps that the owner of the Sonics is a wealthy homophobe. Obviously there’s some dangerous bust potential here, some character issues. Bush is intensely sheltered, but he might be okay. After all, if the team moves to Oklahoma, he’ll play in front of a sympathetic crowd- the only type of crowd he can tolerate.
8
Milwaukee Bucks- John F. Kennedy
This is a reach. Kennedy the athlete really reminds me of Yi Jianlian the athlete. Although there’s the outward projection of vigor and talent, his actual physical state is pretty mysterious. Considering the Bucks badly need star power, and were willing to roll the dice on Yi for a year, it makes sense that they’d give a similar try with JFK.
9
Charlotte Bobcats- Franklin D. Roosevelt
This is a good steal. At his athletic peak, FDR was a pretty versatile athlete. At his intellectual peak, he’s a bold, creative leader who surrounds himself with great talent. This Bobcats team has the talent but lacks a real on-court leader, besides maybe Ray Felton. FDR could take their chemistry to the next level.
10
New Jersey Nets- Ulysses S. Grant
The Nets are a young, soft team that could badly use some interior toughness. Grant is generally kindof a dumb, narrow focused guy, but he’s a dogged, vicious player. After Jackson, he’s the most intense ‘enforcer’ option in this draft, and he could cause some real trouble in the paint.
COMING TOMORROW: picks 11-30 and the presidents who didn't make the cut
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
McCain: Legacy Student
I have long held that legacy admissions are a stupid idea. The long and short of it is that it is dumb and also ethically objectionable to let a kid into a school because one of his parents went there. Consider the most famous living legacy student, George W. Bush: an arrogant elitist of middling intelligence, he went to Yale, received poor grades, and has emerged not only as one of the worst two or three Presidents in history, but as the leading anti-intellectual of his era.
So it's funny that McCain is also a legacy student. He got into Annapolis because his dad and grandfather both went there. My dad argues that this isn't the same thing as with Bush, because the elder McCains were 4-star admirals who served their country well and deserved some slack for their offspring. That's probably true. But then McCain had numerous discipline problems and finished 884th in his class. That was out of 889.
On the one hand, this raises serious questions about his ability to be Commander-in Chief. Obama may be untested, but is that worse than being tested and failing horribly? A single class at a single military academy produced 883 people demonstrably better qualified to lead our military.
On the other hand, maybe McCain is capable but just wasn't trying. That's exactly the kind of thing you'd expect if he were a privileged, coddled asshole who didn't even have to try to get into a top school. It's just another way that McCain is ridiculously like Bush, and it's another great example of why legacy admisisons are a really terrible idea.
So it's funny that McCain is also a legacy student. He got into Annapolis because his dad and grandfather both went there. My dad argues that this isn't the same thing as with Bush, because the elder McCains were 4-star admirals who served their country well and deserved some slack for their offspring. That's probably true. But then McCain had numerous discipline problems and finished 884th in his class. That was out of 889.
On the one hand, this raises serious questions about his ability to be Commander-in Chief. Obama may be untested, but is that worse than being tested and failing horribly? A single class at a single military academy produced 883 people demonstrably better qualified to lead our military.
On the other hand, maybe McCain is capable but just wasn't trying. That's exactly the kind of thing you'd expect if he were a privileged, coddled asshole who didn't even have to try to get into a top school. It's just another way that McCain is ridiculously like Bush, and it's another great example of why legacy admisisons are a really terrible idea.
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