Well apparently the Republicans had a pretty successful convention, because currently McCain is enjoying a strong poll bounce, taking about a 3-point lead in several polls (a ten point swing from Obama's peak). I'm surprised at the strength of the bounce, because I only counted three successful moments in that convention- Rudy's feisty attacks, Sarah Palin competently reading a teleprompter in front of a screamingly supportive crowd, and McCain's nice guy routine. But I guess America really really liked it.
Anyway, 538's model is kinda slow to adjust to swings in the polls- and that slowness/stability is what they go for, anyway- so this week's snapshot is not too different from last week's.
The general pattern of the past few weeks- the red and blue states are getting darker, and the swing states are getting extra swingy. Next week, once we're completely past the convention phase and we can look at this race clearly, I'll offer some more specific analysis about each candidate's victory map.
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