T-minus Six weeks

This was a rough week for McCain. the Financial Crisis and the fade of the convention bounce have left him down in a lot of polls, and led to a dramatic reversal of fortune in 538's map.

Lately I've gotten a little more wary of 538's calculation of national polls. Earlier, when state-by-state data was less frequent, it made sense to buffer the state numbers with the national numbers, but right now I think it's creating a deceptive map. Obama looks like an overwhelming favorite on this map, but state by state, he's in a tight race. Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire are the four Kerry states where he has to commit the most to defense. The Obama victory plan comes down to holding the Kerry states, plus Iowa, New Mexico, and at least one of this group (Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, Florida). McCain's best bet is all about minimizing those Bush losses and flipping one of the vulnerable Rust Belt states, particularly Michigan or Pennsylvania.

Obama is overall about a +3 across the polling board. We'll see if that's an illusory bump, with the economic news playing to his advantage lately, or if the race has actually stabilized in his favor.

JSMIII

I've noticed some conservative blog commenters (not here; they all left when we announced that we would take every comment except for utter insane violent nonsense and impersonations of our writers) like to refer to Obama as BHO. Maybe they're just trying to avoid typing those extra two letters, but I think it's more likely this is another instance of idiots thinking it's somehow important to note that Obama's middle name is Hussein (coincidence? Or PROOF?). In addition to the usual hilarity of stupid racist rightwingery, this is also funny because McCain's full name is John Sidney McCain the Third. Can JSMIII defeat corporate greed and the Washington fatcats? Actually, yes he can.

Conservative Media Bias

As a group, conservatives spend a lot of time whining about how the media have a liberal bias. Normally smart people not in the media handle this the way they handle similarly valid issues like creationism and the War on Christmas: they completely ignore it. But, as anyone paying attention can see, the media actually have a systemic conservative bias, especially when it comes to Presidential elections. Since Palin is now doing so well in the polls, it's time to examine some reasons why the media hate America almost as much as her husband.

Media that doesn't even pretend: For some reason, conservatives don't produce many literate people, so print offenders like The Weekly Standard and The Wall Street Journal op-ed page are balanced by good publications. But conservatives are good at loud fury with no attention to fact, so your Limbaughs and Hannitys and O'Reillys have huge ratings with virtually no liberal competition. Air America and Rachel Maddow just don't compete. That in itself tends to pull the national discourse rightward- millions of people watch Hannity lie every night, whereas liberals aren't even allowed to have TV shows.

Effort to balance an unbalanced discourse: In an attempt to avoid liberal bias, the media often sacrifice accuracy in exchange for balance. The problem is, we don't always have balanced arguments. Almost any policy area in this election is a good example, but let's take the failing economy. Obama has a multi-tiered, very specific plan, and he's had it for months. McCain has barely articulated anything, admits he knows nothing about economics, has a history of corruption, and for the moment has directed his rambling to "forming a committee" and attacking "greed". These are not leftist opinions; they are demonstrable facts. An accurate story about their economic plans would note that, whatever its flaws, Obama at least has a plan, whereas McCain has nothing but a history of failure and a scheme to attack a form of human desire. But the media wants to seem balanced, since, after all, many people believe very strongly in this incorrect information (maybe they wouldn't if it got reported as incorrect information). So they report the economic plans as a serious debate instead of as a plan vs. irresponsible bullshit.

Dishonesty from the right: If you wrote a movie in which the evil old white candidate and his crazy media-whore running mate told as many lies as those two people do in real life, everyone would say you were a terrible, ludicrous failure as a satirist. The right lies frequently, about pretty much anything they want. Because of the balance issue, the media are reluctant to call out these lies. Even the New York Times, more accurate than most, calls them distortions. You you could have impeccable journalistic integrity and still run a headline like, "McCain Repeatedly Lies About Obama's Record". In fact, you'd have more journalistic integrity than most. But the balance issue keeps those headlines from appearing, and the right has disproportionately exploited that. The most successful democrat (or President) of the last three decades, Clinton, got as far as he did largely because he was equally willing to be similarly shamelessly manipulative. Worse, even when the media chooses to discredit a lie, they still air it repeatedly, so a headline like "Obama: Does He Favor Sex-Ed for Pre-Schoolers?" appears over and over without the corresponding labeling of McCain as a terrible asshole. Integrity is actually a detriment in terms of winning the news cycle.

Good ideas are harder to explain than talking points: Any idiot can say "We must have victory in Iraq", and that's an easy thing to put in a story. Even if your counter is obviously correct, like "You have no idea what 'victory in Iraq' even means, do you Senator?" it still probably takes longer to parse, because it's probably a serious thought rather than a stupid talking point. "Thanks but no thanks" is easier to repeat than, "Palin fought for the bridge to nowhere, gave up as soon as the going got tough, and kept the money anyway to build a gravel road". Obama is good at slogans, but his commitment to actual policy makes it harder to communicate his plans.

Most actual members of the media, except for a few very-well-compensated assholes, are not actually partisan hacks. Nonetheless, when one party has legitimate governance as a top priority and the other is committed only to cynical electioneering, the systemic biases are difficult to overcome. Until the mainstream media ignores disingenuous cries for balance and focuses on truly objective reporting, fear-mongering and cynical lies will remain the easiest way to win an election, and candidates who respect the electorate will keep losing to fundamentally dishonorable people like John McCain.

John McCain is Terrible

Ha ha, awesome

McCain Claims He Invented Cell Phones!

Not only that, he says he personally invented Wi-Fi too.

T-minus Seven weeks

This is the first week that the 538 map shows McCain clearly winning. We’re not gonna cherry-pick polls or say that Obama’s better off than McCain right now. Obviously we wish we were on the +270 side right now, but our mood is still pretty calm and confident.

After all, there’s still a lot of time and a lot of events before the election is settled. And it looks to us that McCain is squandering his post-convention peak by immediately going to a strategy of outrageously blatant, ‘up is down’ lying.

This was the week of Lipstick on a Pig, the Bridge to Nowhere, sex-ed for kids, and so on and so on and so on.

In a development that bodes well for Obama, the media actually seems to be turning against McCain and is honestly, actually making some efforts to call JM on his strategy of crazy, relentless bullshit.

This Obama ad is the exact ad I’ve wanted to see all week. Hit em’ with the truth, man. Hit em with the truth and they’ll think it’s hell.

creepy thought

If McCain wins, there could be a significant fraction of his voters who start literally praying for him to die, so that they can get the President they really want.

McCain the Fighter

terrific video:

The Evolution Hoax Exposed

Somehow Joe obtained a copy of The Evolution Hoax Exposed: (Former Title: Why Colleges Breed Communists). According to THE PUBLISHERS in the note before the book, "It is a subject the implications of which are, for some, obscured by the rodomontade of certain scientists."

Utterly mystified, we ran this sentence through Google Translator, first English to German, then German to French, then French back to English. It came back more coherent: "It is an issue whose consequences are for some, masked by some scientists rodomontade."

And that's not even why I started writing this post. We have no idea where this book originated. Joe claims it came from Chase, who got it from his grandma (?). We do know that A.N. Field wrote it around 1941, and our edition is from 1971. The important thing is, one faithful reader, who also highlighted numerous entire paragraphs, wrote margin notes such as "says it all!" and "typical" and apparently quit reading after chapter five, also found time to pen this Post-It:

If man evolved from apes - why do apes still exist?
-Why isn't there a specimen of the crossover being (transitional form) (someone in between like the gays?)(who don't know what or who they are)!! Ha
species may loose hair - get hair loose fins get fins etc - But never - changes species o

Thought provoking.

T-minus Eight weeks

Well apparently the Republicans had a pretty successful convention, because currently McCain is enjoying a strong poll bounce, taking about a 3-point lead in several polls (a ten point swing from Obama's peak). I'm surprised at the strength of the bounce, because I only counted three successful moments in that convention- Rudy's feisty attacks, Sarah Palin competently reading a teleprompter in front of a screamingly supportive crowd, and McCain's nice guy routine. But I guess America really really liked it.

Anyway, 538's model is kinda slow to adjust to swings in the polls- and that slowness/stability is what they go for, anyway- so this week's snapshot is not too different from last week's.

The general pattern of the past few weeks- the red and blue states are getting darker, and the swing states are getting extra swingy. Next week, once we're completely past the convention phase and we can look at this race clearly, I'll offer some more specific analysis about each candidate's victory map.

7 Obama Advantages

The experts aren't quite sure what to make of the polling insanity caused by all the weirdness of the past two weeks, what with the popular incompetent secessionist pit bulls, the pansy hurricanes, and the first good speech by John Kerry since the Vietnam era. But whatever the result, I think it's worth taking a look at a few factors that should work in Obama's favor (many of which I am summarizing from 538). None of these is likely to be game-changing, but together they could help out in a close race.

1. Cell-phone users are underrepresented in the polls. Since pollsters get their information from phone calls, and they don't really have a way to call cell phones, people who don't have land lines are left out of the polls. These people tend to be younger, which means they're more likely to vote Obama.
   
2. Young voters may be underrepresented in the polls. Some pollsters try to weight responses by historical voter turn-outs. Since old people go around voting on everything, and young people are busy setting themselves on fire with their iPods, the youths typically get weighted pretty poorly. But Obama is not only the best candidate in several decades, he's also the coolest, so a larger-than-expected youth vote could give him a little extra boost.
3. The Presidential debates are still coming. Obama has way better stage presence than McCain. He's more charming, he's better looking, he appears healthy instead of in rigor mortis, and he's a far better speaker. And that stuff pales in comparison to the superiority of his grasp on policy. While McCain rambles on about nonexistent borders in a country he wants to occupy for 100 years, Obama knows what the fuck he's talking about. (Here's a good example). Anything could happen, but the best case scenario for the Republicans is basically staying afloat, whereas the Dems have potential for a crushing victory.
4. The VP debates are still coming. You never know when Biden will do something stupid, like calling Palin a dumb broad or something, but this guy owned Rudy Giuliani, one of the creepiest people in America. Palin is an inexperienced wad of corruption whose only substantive national appearance so far involved reading a speech written before she was even chosen. Anything could happen, and Republican damage control (widespread lying) is formidable, but I wouldn't be surprised if she looks like the incompetent local politician she is.
   
5. Enthusiasm gap. The Palin pick may degrade this a little, assuming none of her many, many scandals errupts into a big deal, but generally Dems are way more enthusiastic than GORBs this year. Anecdotal evidence from some folks I know suggests that quite a few conservatives are just too discouraged to vote.
6. Ground Game Gap. Obama has way more people on the ground than McCain. This kind of thing can make a bigger difference as the election draws nearer, since it enables you to focus your resources more efficiently.
7. Death. While new eighteenth birthdays swell Obama's ranks every day, McCain supporters are quietly dying in their sleep, mercifully avoiding the irony of voting for policies that would ruin their fading lives.

Even if the polling comes out tied or with a slight McCain advantage (and by the time the convention bounces wear off, it may show a slight Obama lead anyway), I think the good guys still have reason to be optimistic.

District Attorney Arthur Branch, reporting for duty

So now that the conventions are over, most of the coverage I’ve seen seems to agree that the DNC was a success, even if that’s meant in an insulting way, like being elite or popular. I would have to disagree. I think there were a few things missing. Of course there is the obvious: I saw way too many delegates dancing, but never saw the Biden and Obama families take the stage to do the cupid shuffle together. Whatever. You can’t make time for everything.

I was furious, however, to see that the RNC spanked the DNC when it came to how many speeches they let Fred Thompson give. Nobody noticed it, but it was a gem. Here’s some of my favorite talking points:

• Palin is “a breath of fresh air,” for all the same reasons that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are total shitheads, along with the fact that
  
• She can field-dress a moose. Probably won’t hear that from the mainstream media.
  
• This, of course, is a direct benefit of nominating someone with the kind of small town values that make democrats wanna stop burning vouchers just long enough to rip out an honest working man’s fetus with gay marriage . . . socialism.
  
• She got these small town values in the same place that she gained valuable experience as the “governor of the largest state of the union.” It's so big, in fact, that its slightly less than 700,000 total citizens (1/4 the population of Chicago) still only represent a population density of 1.2 people per square mile. Being in charge of that much empty space is only one of her Alaska-derived credentials. She also has national security experience that can only come from being close to Russia in a strictly geographical sense.

• “She’s a courageous, successful reformer that’s not afraid to take on the establishment.” He couldn’t be more correct on this one. She resented the establishment so much that she wanted to secede from it. Damn beltway insiders from her party, doing whatever it is they do.
  
• After he noted that she’s not afraid to take on the establishment, Thompson asked, “sound like anybody else we know?” and a passionate audience member shouted, “Yes!”
  
• I assume he's referring to McCain here, whom he later identifies as a rebel by virtue of his absurd number of demerits at the naval academy and escapades with women of ill repute. What a stinker. He practically spit in Washington's face five percent of the time with his votes against the GOP, and might very well have done it more if he had showed up to vote on the other 2/3 of the proposals issued at the time.
  
• “When Palin and John McCain get to Washington, they’re not gonna care how much the alligators get irritated, they’re gonna drain that swamp.” Conservatives like to point out that all of Obama’s calls for change are empty rhetoric. Here we have a concrete plan for how to bring about reform: drain the swamp, alligators be damned. And it will happen when John McCain gets to Washington, where he has been for several decades, but he’s not an alligator because who cares if the alligators get mad. This is a party that can do without rhetoric entirely.
  
• “This man, John McCain, is not intimidated by what the polls say or what is politically safe or popular.” Being popular is stupid.
  
• “The respect McCain is given around the world is not because of a teleprompter speech designed to appeal to America’s critics abroad.” Fuck America’s critics abroad, who deeply respect John McCain for his statesmanship. And fuck teleprompters, as per the words written on Fred Thompson’s teleprompter.
  
• ~1:30 into the speech “We take a different view from those in the other party. Listening to them you’d think that we’re in the middle of a great depression, that we’re down, disrespected, incapable of prevailing against challenges that face us . . . We know that we live in the freest, strongest, most generous, and prosperous nation in the history of the world”
• ~20:15 into the speech “There has never been a time in our nations history, since we first pledged allegiance to the American flag [1892] when the character, judgement, and leadership of our president was more important. Terrorists, rogue nations developing nuclear weapons, an increasingly belligerent Russia, intensifying competition from China, spending at home that threatens to bankrupt future generations, for decades an expanding government increasingly wasteful and too often incompetent . . .”
  
• “Obama would match up well with the history-making, democrat controlled congress. History making because it’s the least accomplished and most unpopular congress in our nation’s history.” Being popular is important when it comes to congress. I remember reading a similar indictment (except that it offered evidence) of the republican-controlled congress whose term aligned with an unpopular president that didn’t veto every important bill. One character common to both of those congresses is John McCain.
  
• You can’t correct an economic downturn catalyzed by tax cuts by repealing the tax cuts. See this rationale confuses me, which is why I’m not qualified to be president. Perhaps an over-simplified analogy to help me understand . . .
  
• “Our opponents tell us not to worry about their tax increases. They tell you they’re not going to tax your family. No, they’re just going to tax businesses . . . They say they’re not gonna take any water out of your side of the bucket, just the other side of the bucket.” Now buckets are something I understand, like swamps, and the nation’s economy is most accurately modeled by a bucket of water, which represents money. You can’t take money from just one side of a bucket, because buckets are round, and money automatically flows from you to a business when the business side of the bucket is taxed. What happens to water removed from the bucket by the gubbament? Well, I just I don’t know. Clearly it’s not part of the market anymore. Otherwise it would still be in the bucket, evenly distributed among everyone in the bucket.
  
• “That’s their idea of tax reform.” I actually don’t remember Obama ever mentioning a bucket. Probably got lost in his empty rhetoric. Meanwhile, Americans are stuck wondering how their median income dropped when Bush stopped taking water out of the bucket and the vast number of unemployed people were no longer partaking of the water in the bucket.
  

Sometimes it’s hard to tell when the GOP is attacking itself by mentioning all of the opprobrium associated with Washington politics as usual. I don’t see how they could possibly be mad at anyone else. Anyways, I appreciate Fred Thompson’s sense of irony about his party, which is as subtle as his genius approach to capitalist market systems. That’s the kind of political acumen you can’t expect from someone as inexperienced as Obama, though Palin seems promising.

moderation

I'm getting tired of deleting comments from people pretending to be members here. Now the comments have to be approved before they will be displayed, which pertains to everyone. Anyone not impersonating the authors or looking for a venue to demonstrate their overhwelming desire for attention will be approved. Don't bother writing comments as blogspot admins, either.

Republican Lameness

One factual statement that no one can deny is that Republicans never do anything cool. This has been true since Taft, who followed his elephant-slaying predecessor by getting stuck in a bathtub*. As a result, every musician hates John McCain.

Most recently, the RNC played "Barracuda" by Heart, who then sent them a cease and desist letter. Of course, the RNC followed in its grand tradition of not paying attention to what a song actually means before they illegally use it, so Heart helpfully pointed out that their anthem against bland corporate misogyny had led to "irony in Republican strategists' choice to make use of it there".

In the article that I Googled so I could link to the Heart story, I also learned that the Republicans weren't even cool enough to use "Hello Dolly" back in 1964 (probably not coincidentally about the time the modern Republican party really got going). The producer who owned the rights even authorized a "Hello Lyndon" version for the DNC just to give the GOP that extra little fuck you.

What's more, I realized that in my earlier round-up of the McCain campaign's pathetic musical sadness, I neglected to mention that Jackson Browne actually sued the Republican Party for using his song "Running On Empty". It's one thing when major musicians like Bruce Springsteen and Bob Dylan support your opponent. And it's bad enough when Chuck Berry, whom Wonkette considers a hilariously last-choice option for McCain, doesn't like him either. And it probably hurts even more that McCain's favorite band also hates him. But when way-past-their-prime acts who faded out of the spotlight in the Keating Five era, your Mellencamps, your Hearts, your Brownes, give you the finger, that's when you know, and it must be interesting to have proof on such a deep level, that you are a historically lame person.

Bonus Great Thing: According to this letter, which I'd recommend for its interesting take on Palin, "Around Wasilla there are people who went to high school with Sarah. They call her 'Sarah Barracuda' because of her unbridled ambition and predatory ruthlessness." This isn't the greatest source, although it's also not the worst, but I think we can all agree that Palin definitely got her nickname not because of her stand-out point-guard skills in the Alaska women's high school basketball scene, but because she is a cruel, horrible person. Barracuda!


*Note that the last cool Republican quit the party in disgust soon thereafter. This may also be why he killed all those elephants.

one more thing about Palin

After her big speech, there's no way she gets Eagleton'd. She's a hilariously flawed candidate, but she's absolutely earned the devotion of the republican base, and McCain can't give up that benefit, even if it literally might be the Only benefit.

We forget now, but last year the Republican field of candidates was an embarassing, motley mess. John McCain won by default against a mean-spirited transvestite, a lazy actor, a weird and despicable east-coast millionaire, and a likable-but-dumb christianist who didn't hate taxes enough.


The Republicans just wanted a charismatic social conservative the whole time, and now Sarah Palin has emerged as exactly that person. She could've been the nominee this year, if her career was just a year or two older. There's no surprise that the mere mention of her name drew the biggest, most impassioned applause during McCain's speech. They genuinely prefer her, plain and simple.


The most striking moment of this convention came right after Palin's speech. The crowd had been screaming and cheering with extraordinary energy, for a solid hour, and suddenly McCain made his cameo appearance with her. All of that passion she fired up, and suddenly we remember that it's all for the cause of this shriveled, pasty peanut of a man. It really looked like Oz emerging from behind the curtain.

McCain looks like a little old man, trying to hitch himself to her star. The future of the GOP is not with him and maybe he knows it, maybe not. But he's unleashed something with this pick that he can't necessarily control.


Sarah Palin is bigger than John McCain right now, and I don't know if anything is gonna change that.

mr. familiar

McCain's speech last night was pretty good. Maybe it wasn't a brilliant speech, but he came off as really nice and genuine. It made me like McCain again, for at least a day. He's still the wrong man for the moment and his campaign is a gruesome Rovian hack machine, but the guy himself seemed nice for the first time in a while.

It looks like his goal in that speech was to be Mr. Familiar. In these dangerous times, his appeal is gonna be "You know me, I've been around." A lot of the pundits say that his speech sucked, but he looked like a guy we've known for a long time. That'll be a good gambit for winning over the middle.

Something I don't get about him is, everything in his mythology and in the journalism indicates that he's this tough guy, maverick, fighter- but he looks so fucking meek every time he gives a speech. He doesn't just look old, he looks delicate. soft.

Obama truly looks more Presidential, and the debates are gonna make a jarring visual contrast.

No Spin Zone

This was most certainly bizarre. I can't imagine how awkward the "interview" must have been, and I wonder how much (if) O'Reilly reigned in his compulsive habit of frantically shouting over guests on his show when "allowing them to speak." Maybe I'll catch it at 11. Also, Palin and her speech fucking creeped me out- I hope a moose stomps on her or a wolf that escaped her aerial hunting plan at least chews on her a good bit.


Random quote found on Digg.com in regard to Palin's support of gunning down moose predators from the sky so that hunters can gun down more moose from the not-sky:

"There's something so wrong with a staunch Christian perforating God's creatures from a helicopter."

Thanks, random Digg commenter for probably the best use I've seen of the word 'perforate.'

Fond Remembrances

As the Republican Convention winds down without a single good speech so far, our friend Miriam has done some hard-hitting journalism to bring you a look back at Republican history in the Twin Cities. Here is a time-line:

• June 11, 2007: Larry Craig arrested for soliciting sexual activity in a Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport men's room.

At the top of this article, we have a photo of the bathroom stall where Craig famously expressed his commitment to Republican Values. One fun activity you can do with this picture is try to imagine someone just naturally standing with his feet so far apart that they go under those walls.
Of course, you have to know the context for a story like this, so we've also got a picture of the bathroom in the context of the greater airport. It's right by the ol' Royal Zeno Shoe Shine. Maybe Craig was just really enthusiastic about their work and wanted to show a gay airport bathroom prostitute?
Thanks to Miriam for her photojournalism.

Palin-drome: "McCain fucked up udekcuf niaccM"

There are more embarrassing Palin stories than there are words in this sentence.


Frankly, the pace of scandals is hilarious. It’s so bad that there’s already random speculation about whether she’ll have to leave the ticket.

I wouldn’t bet on it, though. After all, John McCain is a man of honor. And McCain’s honor is built on one crucial tenet: When you make a crazy, impulsive mistake, you must never, ever admit it, no matter how many thousands of people die or vote for Obama.

T-minus Nine weeks

Wow, what a crazy fucking week! The Democratic National Convention looks like a pretty major success, with more knockout, devastatingly good speeches than I can ever remember at a convention before. Michelle, Hillary, Bill, John Kerry, Teddy, Joe and Barack all delivered big moments and great commentary. The Obama speech was really stellar- a very specific and serious explanation of where he wants to take the country, plus a pretty surgical dissection of McCain's various critiques and campaign tactics. Beautiful work. And the stadium gambit feels like it paid off- instead of coming off as grandiose, it really looked like a massive gathering of regular people. Extraordinary diversity- young, old, every color, in pretty much every shot of the crowd.

The GOP Convention meanwhile is off to a rocky start. McCain picked Sarah Palin for VP, a decision that looked great for precisely One day. Since then, stories have rolled out daily about how utterly unserious and unvetted this pick really was. McCain seems to have undercut his experience argument, in addition to coming off as rash and cavalier in contrast to Obama's sober and studied VP choice.

And of course, Hurricane Gustav is issue number one. Many of our contributors grew up pretty close to Katrina and Gustav's path, so this is not something we'll take lightly. On the political front, it pretty much shut down a day of the RNC, and that's all we'll say.


The numbers are in flux, of course, and we'll really understand the state of the race in a week or two. But right now, it looks like the Dems made the most of their Convention, and we're yet to see if the Republicans can organize an equally clean, effective message.

22 CUTE

thanks to pink is the new blog for obnoxious remedial photoshop inspiration