Obama's Chances

As Will notes below, Obama's numbers are coming back down to Earth a little after weeks of it looking like McCain was going to have his ass handed to him. But I think it's important to remember that Obama still has a pretty commanding lead.

Here's a probably worthless but interesting way to look at it. If you go to FiveThirtyEight, and scroll down a bit, you'll notice that they have odds as to who will win each state. They're not perfect, but the 538 guys have a good track record, so they're usable enough.

So if you take the states where Obama has a 90% or better chance of winning, he has 175 electoral votes. These states aren't necessarily a lock (538 has MN as a swing state, e.g.), but seriously, he's pretty much guaranteed those votes. At 80% plus, he's got 242. These aren't so guaranteed, but he's still highly likely to win them. At 70% plus, Obama's at 262. These are pretty close to toss-up states, but still, he's projected to win, and he has a decent cushion. Throw in Ohio, where he's favored with a 68% chance of winning, and he's got 284 votes- making him the winner. He has a solid lead without even counting every state where he's ahead.

It's much more fun to look at McCain. His solid base, the 90% plus guys, are worth 113 votes. At 80%, he's all the way up to 154, still shy of Obama's guaranteed votes. At 70% he gets up to 202, a far cry from Obama's 262 at that percentage, and where adding Ohio is a little chancy for Obama, McCain has to pick up much less likely states just to catch up. His 60% plus states take him to 229. The 50% plus states are just Virginia, which is right at 50-50, and 538 actually projects it going for Obama. So with that, a pure toss-up, McCain gets to 242, still not even close really. Add in the 40% plus states, which are nothing, and he's still at 242. Finally, if you add in the 30% plus states, which, remember, he is very likely to lose, he just crosses the bar with 271 electoral votes.

Put succinctly, in order to win the election, Obama must win states that he is currently likely to win, minus one or two of them. McCain needs to win two states that he is highly likely to lose, one toss-up, and three where he stands a worse chance than Obama in Ohio. If you're an Obama guy, you might like things to be a little more secure- your hopes rest on a 68% shot. If you're a McCain guy, your hopes rest on a 32% shot, and you've given up long ago.